Gold – Strong First Half, Resilient Momentum into 2H25

Strong Rally, Multi Factor Driver

Macro Backdrop – Supportive but Volatile

• Fed cuts: Markets pricing higher probability (+90%, c. Bloomberg) of a September cut; more easing into Q4. We expects atleast 3 rate-cuts in 2025
• Dollar weakness: DXY down ~10% YTD, reinforcing demand for non-dollar assets
• Inflation: US 5-year breaks even near 2.45%, showing sticky expectations
• Geopolitics: US-China trade risk, European fiscal strains, Middle East tensions keep safe-haven premium intact

ETF Flows – Key Short-Term Driver

• Gold ETFs saw three straight months of inflows
• August 2025: +53t inflows (+US$5.5bn)
• YTD inflows: US$47bn (~397t) — the second strongest year on record after 2020
• North America (+US$4.1bn) and Europe (+US$1.9bn) led August; Asia saw outflows (mainly China)
• Total holdings rose to 3,692t with AUM at US$407bn (record high)

Central Banks – Structural Buyers, Broadening Base

• Poland: New target of 30% gold share in reserves (up from 20%). Already above 515 tonnes, implying 250+ tonnes of potential incremental demand
• China: Ongoing spree — 10th consecutive month of buying. Added ~1.9t in August; cumulative ~38tonnes since Nov 2024, total now ~2,300 tonnes
• Uganda: Announced a 2–3-year pilot program to purchase artisanal gold — marking a new incremental buyer
• WGC data (to July): Net purchases led by Poland, Azerbaijan, Turkey, China, with tactical sales by Russia, Singapore, Uzbekistan

Central bank demand remains the structural floor for gold, consistently above 1,000t annually, even if monthly flows fluctuate. Importantly, the breadth of buyers is widening, reinforcing gold’s role in official reserves

Months	Central Bank Net Buying (Tonnes)	Gold ETFs Flow (Tonnes)
Jun-25	22	75
Jun-25	10	23
Aug-25	Not yet released, likely to be positive	53
YTD 2025	535 (till July)	473

Observation: The rally has been more ETF-driven in recent months, but central banks provide the long-term anchor

Conclusion

The gold rally of 2025 is dual-powered:

• ETFs have been the main short-term driver
• Central banks are the long-term structural bedrock of demand

View: With a weaker dollar, looming Fed cuts, and persistent global risks, we maintain a constructive view on gold into year-end as this trend continues

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